The Random Walk Hypothesis in the Emerging Indian Stock Market

This paper examines the random walk hypothesis in the emerging Indian stock market using daily data on individual stocks. The statistical evidence in this paper rejects the random walk hypothesis. The results suggest that daily returns earned by individual stocks and by an equally weighted portfolio show significant non–linear dependence and persistent volatility effects. The non–linear dependence takes the form of ARCH–type conditional heteroskedasticity and does not appear to be caused by nonstationarity of underlying economic variables. Though conditional volatility is time varying, it does not explain expected returns.     

论我国非公有制经济发展的动力机制转换

我国非公有制经济发展的启动力量和扩张动力，一直主要源于政府的安排和推动。由于外部环境和内部实力的深刻变化，这种以政府为主导的外生动力机制的延续，对非公有制经济的主体意识、微观经营机制、市场空间扩张与力量壮大，均产生诸多消极影响。转换动力机制，激活并充分发挥其内在动力，是市场经济条件下实现非公有制经济持续、健康、快速发展的客观要求。     

Efficient Markets Hypothesis and the Emerging Capital Market in Sri Lanka: Evidence from the Colombo Stock Exchange – A Note

The behaviour of stock prices on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) is examined with a view to determine its consistency with the weak form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH). Runs, Autocorrelation and Cointegration tests are applied to daily, weekly and monthly CSE index data for the period of January 1991–November 1996. Results of Runs, Correlation and Cointegration tests overwhelmingly reject the serial independence hypothesis, leading to the conclusion that the behaviour of stock prices in the Colombo Stock Exchange is not consistent with the weak form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. Tests of the-day-of-the-week-effect, however, show that there is no evidence of such a phenomenon on the Colombo Stock Exchange stock prices. Results of the tests of the-month-of-the-year-effect lead to the conclusion that CSE prices do not display any month-specific behaviour.     

Closing small open economy models

The small open economy model with incomplete asset markets features a steady-state that depends on initial conditions and equilibrium dynamics that possess a random walk component. A number of modifications to the standard model have been proposed to induce stationarity. This paper presents a quantitative comparison of these alternative approaches. Five different specifications are considered: (1) A model with an endogenous discount factor (Uzawa-type preferences); (2) a model with a debt-elastic interest-rate premium; (3) a model with convex portfolio adjustment costs; (4) a model with complete asset markets; and (5) a model without stationarity-inducing features. The main finding of the paper is that all models deliver virtually identical dynamics at business-cycle frequencies, as measured by unconditional second moments and impulse response functions. The only noticeable difference among the alternative specifications is that the complete-asset-market model induces smoother consumption dynamics.     

Confucian Business Ethics and the Economy

Confucian ethics as applied to the study of business ethics often relate to the micro consideration of personal ethics and the character of a virtuous person. Actually, Confucius and his school have much to say about the morals of the public administration and the market institutions in a more macro level. While Weber emphasizes the role of culture on the development of the economy, and Marx the determining influence of the material base on ideology, we see an interaction between culture – specifically Confucian business ethics – and the economy. In this paper, we are going to study this interaction in several crucial stages of development of Confucianism. The paper concludes by postulating the relevance of Confucian business ethics to the global knowledge economy.     

试论建立和完善农村合作金融管理体制

建立和完善农村合作金融管理体制是我国金融体制改革的重要组成部分。我国农村合作金融虽然有了很大发展 ,但农村合作金融管理体制还存在很多弊端 ,迫切需要建立和完善具有中国特色的农村合作金融管理体制。本文在充分分析问题和弊端的基础上 ,科学地提出了建立新体制的构想 ,对于加强农业的基础地位、促进农村经济发展有着十分重要的意义     

农村经济的“第二个飞跃”与农用土地制度改革

土地制度的安排与改革决定着农村经济发展的前程。我国农业的改革和发展,要有两个飞跃:第一个是实行以家庭联产承包经营为主的责任制;第二个是发展适度的规模经营,发展合作经济。现行土地制度制约着第二个飞跃的实现,需要调整和完善。土地私有化不是我国土地制度改革的方向。土地制度改革在于适应现代农业建设的需要,构建农地财产权新的框架,以利于农业产业化经营,发展多种形式的适度规模经营。     

中国户口制度改革的理论分析

随着户籍制度改革的深化 ,从完全禁止户口迁移到数量限制政策 ,再到征收费用政策和放开小城镇入户限制的逐步放松户籍管制政策 ,对经济发展的贡献日益增加 ,损害逐渐减轻。我国放开小城镇户籍限制的改革放活了地方经济。我国户籍制度改革进程是由经济内生决定的 ,城市经济发展的需要推进着户籍制度的改革进程。那些放开户籍限制的城市也没有出现人们担心的问题。放开户籍限制不会构成对城市就业、住房、治安、交通的压力 ,反而创造了发展的契机。     

整合产品服务系统——实现循环经济的新途径

整合产品服务系统(IPSS)是一种社会组织创新战略,通过将目前仅生产和销售有形产品的相互分离的工业生产与服务体系有机地整合,以比传统生产和消费模式更低的环境代价,有效满足顾客需求。作为对传统商业模式的革命性变革,整合产品服务系统是促进可持续发展和循环经济的有效手段和必由之路。本文讨论其产生的背景,给出其定义和理论框架,介绍其发展历程,以便为我国发展循环经济提供借鉴。     

报废汽车回收体系结构模型研究

报废汽车的回收重用一方面是＂生产者责任延伸制＂在汽车行业贯彻实施的结果,另一方面来源于再制造环节中蕴藏的丰厚利润的诱导.目前我国回收利用报废汽车的方式比较落后,主要是对原材料进行重用.本文构建了一个由汽车制造商牵头纽建,以功能多样化的回收中心作为中心处理单元的报废汽车回收体系结构模型,以期实现更高层次的回收重用.